The Austrian government's planned fiscal consolidation is unlikely to stabilise general government debt-to-GDP over the next five years without further measures to help offset rising structural spending pressures amid the weak outlook for economic growth.

Higher US tariffs on imports from the EU represent an external headwind for Ireland’s export and corporate-tax dependent economy but the 15% tariff increase looks manageable without materially challenging the strong public finance outlook.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Sub-Sovereigns Rating Methodology by 1 September 2025. The proposed update refines Scope’s analytical approach. No rating changes are expected as a result of this update.

The Portuguese government’s payment of a pension bonus this year and multiyear corporate tax cuts will not reverse the declining public debt trajectory, but diminished fiscal leeway leaves less room for manoeuvre in case of future shocks.

Transatlantic trade tensions are contributing to a moderate deceleration in near-term economic growth in the European Union and euro area by around 0.4pps, even in a baseline scenario of the United States and the EU reaching a preliminary trade agreement.

China is confronting several daunting challenges: persistent deflation, historically low interest rates, structurally declining economic growth and rising levels of government debt. This raises significant obstacles for economic stability.

The government’s commitment to fiscal discipline is challenged by a rising interest burden, an economic slowdown and a fragmented and uncertain political environment weighing on the country’s fiscal and reform outlook.

Germany’s ambitious defence and infrastructure borrowing plans will lead to a marked increase in its deficit and debt-to-GDP. Sustaining fiscal space over the long term will depend on associated growth effects but also pension and labour market reforms.

Tuesday, July 15th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CEST)

Achieving NATO’s higher defence spending target of 3.5% of GDP will increase budget deficits and public debt across the EU, weakening sovereign credit profiles unless governments consider a mix of spending cuts, tax hikes, and joint defence funding