The latest government shutdown in the United States occurred as a result of policy disagreements between Republicans and Democrats on issues such as healthcare, but it reflects the country’s deepening political polarisation.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine war drags on with no end in sight, the challenges for Ukraine’s debt sustainability and finances are mounting. Addressing them requires the use of frozen Russian reserves. Deeper debt restructuring should also be considered.

Germany’s ramp-up of infrastructure and defence spending will likely be more gradual than planned, posing risks to an already fragile growth outlook, particularly if additional investments and associated private-sector co-investment fail to materialise.

The decision to keep rates on hold last week confirms that the ECB remains in wait-and-see mode. With inflation around 2%, there is little justification for a cut next month. The economy is relatively resilient and risks to inflation are balanced.

The Fed’s expected 25bp rate cut on Wednesday appears premature given the latest increase in headline inflation to 2.9%, an economy still expanding at around 2%, the uncertain effects of higher tariffs and only modest signs of labour market softening.

Scope has updated its sub-sovereign methodology by integrating ESG factors into the core analytical framework and enhancing the institutional and individual credit profile assessments. No rating changes are expected as a result of this update.

Cyprus’s public debt is set to fall below 60% of GDP this year driven by robust growth and prudent fiscal policy while bad debts on bank balance sheets continue to decline, offsetting risks from a challenging geopolitical and external environment.

Unresolved divisions in France’s parliament risk exacerbating political instability and associated credit challenges given large budget deficits and rising public debt.

Buoyant markets, a resilient US economy, rising customs revenues, appeasement by trading partners and conducive politics point to further escalation in US trade tensions, already set to cut global output by an estimated 0.7pps in the medium term.

The Austrian government's planned fiscal consolidation is unlikely to stabilise general government debt-to-GDP over the next five years without further measures to help offset rising structural spending pressures amid the weak outlook for economic growth.