BBVA’s determination to pursue Banco de Sabadell and Sabadell’s confidence in its standalone strategy align with our view of the supportive banking environment in Spain, which remains an attractive market to deploy capital.

Significant efforts have been made since the GFC to improve the supervision of systemically important banks and address the issue of too-big-to-fail. But on this and the effectiveness of AT1s in supporting G-SIB recovery, there is room for improvement.

EU supervisors remain concerned that banks’ real-estate exposure is vulnerable, and US contagion risk is an issue. But while German banks’ CRE portfolios are unlikely to have endangered the safe-haven status of Pfandbriefe, office exposure is a worry.

Faster growth and higher interest rates in Central and Eastern Europe have boosted the profitability of Western European banks present in the region and supported their credit profiles. The strategic case for maintaining their presence remains intact.

Norwegian savings banks have displayed strong profitability on the back of the supportive interest-rate environment. We expect this to continue. The pace of credit expansion has abated but the banks have managed to continue growing their loan books.

Non-performing loans (NPLs) of EU banks continued to increase, hitting EUR 364.9bn according to the EBA’s latest Risk Dashboard showing data to Q4 2023. But the consolidated NPL ratio, at 1.85%, is still close to the historical low.

When it comes to assessing banks, high customer satisfaction, progress in digitalisation or brand value do not win arguments in investment, credit, or rating committees if financial metrics are not sufficiently reassuring.

After a strong January, EUR benchmark covered bond issuance slowed in February and March. Some of the reluctance to issue may have been driven by Germany’s specialised commercial mortgage lenders, given rising tensions in commercial real estate.

Tuesday, April 23rd 2024 - 3:30 PM (CEST)

Europe’s real estate companies grapple with negative credit outlook; German banks look resilient despite CRE risks; bond market access is a differentiator for property companies; systemic risks are still high in European housing