Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Slovenia (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: A+/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-1+/Stable) on 28 October 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

Slovenia’s A+ rating is underpinned by: i) euro area membership, which supports monetary and financial stability; ii) prudent fiscal policy, moderate and stable public debt, and continued structural reform efforts, underpinning economic resilience; iii) a favourable debt profile, characterised by a long average maturity; and iv) sizeable fiscal and external buffers, providing capacity to absorb shocks.

Slovenia remains committed to fiscal prudence and reform, maintaining moderate deficits and a large cash buffer. The general government deficit narrowed to 0.9% of GDP in 2024 and is projected to average about 2.7% over 2025–2030, with debt stabilising near 67% of GDP, broadly unchanged from 2024. The debt profile is favourable, with an average maturity of 9.3 years, while a large cash buffer of EUR 9.5bn (13.5% of GDP at end-3Q2025) provides additional fiscal flexibility. Pension and public-sector wage reforms aim to contain ageing-related costs and support long-term fiscal sustainability.

Scope expects Slovenia’s economic growth to slow to 0.9% from 1.7% in 2024 as external demand weakens and exports of intermediate goods, particularly metals and vehicles, decline amid subdued euro-area industry performance and ongoing external uncertainties. Domestic demand remains the main growth driver, underpinned by high but moderating wages and public investment, while the recent weakening in employment and structural labour shortages and demographics continue to limit potential output.

The current account surplus stood at 3.9% of GDP in H1 2025 but is expected to moderate over 2025–27, supported by resilient services exports and contained domestic demand. Slovenia’s net international investment position (NIIP) has strengthened in recent years, reaching 9.9% of GDP in 2024 and underscoring its external resilience despite near-term trade headwinds. Inflation will edge up to around 2.9% by end-2025, with core inflation slightly above 2% amid tight labour markets and wage pressures. Medium-term growth is projected to average around 2%, dependent on a gradual euro-area recovery, efficient EU fund use, and productivity gains to offset persistent cost pressures.

Rating challenges include: i) persistent labour supply shortages, which may constrain potential growth; and ii) adverse demographic trends, including population ageing, posing long-term fiscal and economic pressures.

The Stable Outlook on the ratings represents Scope’s view that risks for the ratings are balanced.

Upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Greater economic diversification, higher wealth levels, and sustained current account surpluses, further improving its external position and enhancing economic resilience; and/or
    
2. A significant reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio driven by strong fiscal discipline.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Weakening fiscal performance, reversing the progress in debt reduction and undermining the fiscal outlook; and/or
    
2. GDP growth prospects weaken materially, for example, driven by declining reform momentum or external shocks.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 27 January 2025) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Jakob Suwalski, Executive Director

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