Rating action

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in both local and foreign currency of Poste Italiane S.p.A. (‘Poste Italiane, or the Entity’) at BBB+, and revised the Outlook to Positive, from Stable. Scope has also affirmed Poste Italiane’s short-term issuer ratings at S-2 in both local and foreign currency, and revised the Outlook to Positive, from Stable. Finally, Scope has also affirmed the rating of BBB- to the perpetual subordinated 8-year non-call hybrid securities issued by Poste Italiane, and revised the Outlook to Positive. The Outlooks change of Poste Italiane’ ratings is driven by Scope's revision of the Outlook to Positive on the Italian Republic’ ratings of BBB+ on 31 October 2025¹.

The latest information on the rating, including rating reports and related methodologies, is available here.

Rating rationale

The BBB+ of Poste Italiane is aligned with that of the Republic of Italy (BBB+/Positive) and reflects the following assessments:

• Integration with the public sponsor: The credit quality of Poste Italiane is underpinned by a strong integration with its public sponsor, the Italian Republic (BBB+/Positive), resulting from: i) significant ownership ties; ii) Poste Italiane's contributions to government policies as Italy's universal postal provider and operator of the largest service distribution network in the country; and iii) material financial interdependencies between Poste Italiane and the sovereign. Poste Italiane has a monopoly in offering postal savings products issued by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), which are guaranteed by the Italian government.
   
• Control, regular support and likelihood of exceptional support: Poste Italiane’s credit quality reflects the legal control and oversight by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) over its activities and finances. Moreover, given its dominant market position, as provider of diverse services through the nation's most extensive distribution network, Poste Italiane plays a vital role in supporting Italy’s socio-economic development and innovation. Poste Italiane’s interdependence with the government is also highlighted by the flow of dividends the MEF receives annually. Furthermore, Poste Italiane's offering of postal savings products issued by CDP and guaranteed by the Italian State significantly enhances the likelihood for exceptional financial support in a timely manner, if needed.
   
• Stand-alone fundamentals: The BBB+ rating is also underpinned by Poste Italiane’s stand-alone sound fundamentals. The business risk profile benefits from a highly diversified business structure, enabling the entity to navigate various market trends while maintaining sustained operating performance and profitability. Moreover, the business risk profile is bolstered by conservative cost management and the capacity to offer different services and products to a wide range of clients. In addition, Poste Italiane with regard Poste Vita benefits from a high solvency ratio and it has been able to contain the sensitivity of its portfolio to interest rate and spread risk. The financial risk profile shows low risk, due to the entity’s low financial debt levels and its favourable debt profile, with fixed interest rate debt, a favourable maturity profile and no exposure to foreign currency risks. This is further supported by ample liquidity buffers, access to external credit lines, and robust cash flow generation from operational activities.
   
• Hybrid security: The BBB- rating for Poste Italiane’s subordinated (hybrid) debt is two notches below the issuer rating of BBB+/Positive. This rating reflects the instrument’s deep contractual subordination, ranking just above ordinary share capital for repayment priority. The perpetual tenor of the debt and the discretionary option to defer coupon payments on each date contribute to this two-notch differential. Given these characteristics, Scope has assigned a 50% equity content to these notes.

Key rating drivers

Strong integration with the Republic of Italy. Poste Italiane has been operating as a joint-stock company (“Società per Azioni”) since 1998, thereby falling under private law and subject to private insolvency proceedings. As a significant Government-related entity (GRE) in Italy's postal, financial, insurance and payment sector, Poste Italiane’s ownership primarily rests with the Italian MEF, holding a 64.26% stake in the company. This ownership arrangement consists of a 64.26% stake in the company, with the MEF directly owning 29.26% of the capital, while an additional 35% share is held through CDP, which operates under the control of the MEF. The remaining 35.74% of shares has been publicly traded on the Italian equity market since October 27, 2015. As of June 2025, 11.46% of the shares are held by retail investors, 23.36% by institutional investors and 0.92% comprise Treasury shares.

Scope understands that the government’s plan to divest part of Poste Italiane by the MEF, while maintaining governance control, has been put on hold for the moment. Should the sale be brought back for discussion, Scope will evaluate the ultimate link between Poste Italiane and the Italian State. However, since the MEF is expected to maintain an overall share above 50% in Poste Italiane, this is unlikely to alter significantly the entity’s governance structure and strategic direction.

Poste Italiane serves as Italy's universal postal provider, operating the country's most extensive services distribution network in the country. The entity's operations extend beyond conventional postal services to include, among others, the distribution of postal savings products, comprising Postal Savings Passbooks (“Libretti’) and Postal Savings Bonds (“Buoni Fruttiferi Postali”). These financial products are issued by CDP and are guaranteed by the Italian State, highlighting Poste Italiane’s unique involvement in the provision of specific financial services, targeting a large amount of retail savings.

Moreover, Poste Italiane contributes significantly to the stability of state funding by directing proceeds from both private and public administration current account deposits mostly into Italian government bonds and deposits managed by the MEF. This financial interdependence, which includes also a flow of dividends the MEF receives each year, underscores the close relationship between Poste Italiane and the Italian Republic, emphasizing its pivotal role in managing a large share of savings while supporting Italy’s government funding needs.

Material link between Poste Italiane’s and the Italian State’s credit quality. Poste Italiane is the national postal provider in Italy and serves as the primary retail channel to fund public debt. It operates as the sole distributor of postal savings backed by the Italian State through CDP. Poste Italiane plays a vital role as a significant investor for the Italian Republic through BancoPosta, which invests funds into government securities or in MEF deposits accounts and Poste Vita, which purchases euro area government bonds, mainly Italy’s bonds. This crucial contribution helps maintain a stable funding base, and mitigates refinancing risks for the State, as Poste Italiane is unlikely to sell Italy’s government bonds in case of financial market distress. The role of distributor of postal savings, typically to a large share of retail clients, coupled with the crucial contribution to help and maintain a stable funding base for the State, enhances the likelihood of receiving exceptional financial assistance from the government if ever needed, thus ensuring potential timely support. Potential material strains in Poste Italiane’s financial position and trust could lead to a saving withdrawal, reducing an important source of funding and undermining Italy’s government reputation.

Poste Italiane does not depend on direct funding support from the State to finance investment activities or repay its debt, however, it receives some compensation for public service obligations. The latest Service Contract for 2020-2024, extended until 2026, entitles Poste Italiane to receive EUR 262m (2.1% of 2024 the group’s net operating revenues) per year to compensate for the losses incurred in the provision of the universal postal service. In addition, national law allows the entity to receive publisher tariff subsidies – amounting to slightly above EUR 50m per year – from the Fund for Pluralism and Innovation in Information, funded through the national annual budget. Finally, Poste Italiane receives from CDP, which is controlled by the MEF, an amount between EUR 1.6bn to EUR 1.9bn per year related to the payment for the collection of postal service deposits, as a result of the agreement with CDP until 2026.

Poste Italiane fulfils a dual role combining corporate responsibilities and policy functions. Given its diverse products and services provided via the nation's most extensive distribution network, Poste Italiane plays a crucial role in supporting socio-economic development and innovation. In the last seven years, Poste Italiane contributed about EUR 90bn to the country's GDP and EUR 15bn to tax revenue. It is the largest national employer with an average employment of 189,000 generated between 2018 and 2024².

Strong fundamentals, profitable, well-diversified business, and very low financial risks. Poste Italiane's business profile benefits from its dominant market position offering distinctive products and services to a large number of clients, accompanied by disciplined cost management and operational efficiency. The diversified structure comprises four business units: the Mail, Parcel and Distribution unit provides mail, parcel delivery and contract logistics services; Postepay services manages payments and electronic money services, as well as mobile, energy and fixed-line telecommunications. Since 2022, Poste Italiane also offers retail electricity and energy products under this business line. Moreover, by becoming the largest shareholder in “Telecom Italia Mobile” (TIM) in early 2025, Poste Italiane is reinforcing its voice and data selling as well as energy contracts through TIM selling points.

In addition, the Financial Services division offers current accounts and investment products, provides asset management activities and acts as a third-party distributor of mortgages and personal loans with no credit risk. Finally, the Insurance Services unit offers insurance, retirement and investment products.

Although Poste Italiane’s activities are directly exposed to fluctuations in Italy’s macro-economic and financial conditions, including interest rates, its diversified business structure enables the entity to navigate various market trends, maintaining robust operating performance and profitability. Scope notes favorably Poste Italiane’s capacity to withstand volatility in interest rates, dynamic competition in some sectors, as well as the structural decline in volume of mail deliveries.

By containing costs and improving operational efficiency while entering new markets and serving a large number of clients, Poste has been able to maintain solid revenues over the past years. Scope also notes positively how the entity has increased revenues in e-commerce offsetting the decline in mail delivery volumes over time, alongside a wider offer of insurance products attracting net outflows of postal savings. This has enabled Poste Italiane to generate solid results, with revenues and adjusted EBIT registering a 3% and 15% CAGR, respectively in the 2017-24 period.

Poste Italiane continues to post sound results. Operational performance yielded record-high adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of EUR 2.96bn in 2024, surpassing the initial EUR 2.7bn target set for the year. Moreover, the sound financial performance registered in the first half of 2025, including an adjusted EBIT increasing by 11.5% year-on-year and net profits up by 14% year-on-year, led management to revise the Plan guidance for adjusted EBIT and year-end Net Profits upwards in July, to EUR 3.2bn and EUR 2.2bn ³, respectively.

Poste Italiane’s financial risk is low. Conservative financial management has effectively minimized debt levels – amounting to EUR 2.0bn as of September 2025 – with no exposure to foreign currency risk, mostly at fixed interest, and a favourable maturity profile. Financial debt is only issued by the parent company of the group, Poste Italiane S.p.A. As of September 2025, financial debt includes bonds (25% of total), strategic loans from the European Investment Bank (63%), and loans from the Council of Europe Development Bank (12%).

Poste Italiane bolstered its equity significantly in 2021 following the issuance of EUR 800m perpetual subordinated hybrid bond, though the equity-to-asset ratio has been maintained at a modest 4% over 2020-2024. Although this does not impede operational capabilities, it indicates a restricted capital structure in relation to the entity’s asset holdings.

The financial risk profile also benefits from comfortable liquidity buffers. The cash-pooling approach for liquidity management provides the unrestricted liquidity coming from self-financing, third parties funding and subsidiaries’ unrestricted cash, to be centralised at the group level in the Mail, Parcels and Distribution unit. Total group cash and cash equivalents averaged EUR 5.3bn between 2020-2024. The unrestricted component of these funds – not subject by law or by regulatory limits to usage restrictions, such as investments in euro government bonds or deposits with the MEF, as well as investments in separate managed accounts – amounted to EUR 2.1bn, providing a significant cover of total financial expenses (26x) and investment activities (3x).

Poste Italiane’s liquidity position is further supported by external credit lines and revolving credit facilities, totaling EUR 3.8bn. Combined with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, total available liquidity for Poste Italiane amounts to around EUR 5.9bn as of September 2025, guaranteeing comfortable coverage of total financial debt by almost three times.

Rating-change drivers

The Positive Outlook reflects Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are tilted to the upside over the coming 12 to 18 months.

Upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks were upgraded.

Downside scenarios for the rating and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

2. The Republic of Italy’s ratings/Outlooks are downgraded.
    
3. There were legal changes leading to a significantly lower integration with the Italian state, for example via material divestment.
    
4. A significant and sustained deterioration in the business and/or financial risk profile.

Qualitative Scorecards (QS1, QS2)

Scope applies a top-down approach (QS1) in assessing the creditworthiness of Poste Italiane, which takes the public sponsor’s rating (Republic of Italy: BBB+/Positive) as the starting point and then potentially negatively adjusts it based on the assessment of: i) control and regular support; and ii) likelihood of exceptional support (QS2). The approach also includes a supplementary analysis of the entity’s business and financial risk profiles.

The adoption of the top-down approach (QS1) reflects the strong integration between Poste Italiane and its public sponsor, the Italian Republic, resulting from: i) a ‘limited’ integration assessment for legal status, ii) ‘medium’ integration assessment for Poste Italiane’s purpose and activities; iii) a ‘high’ integration assessment regarding its shareholder structure; and iv) a ‘high’ integration assessment on financial interdependencies.

Scope assesses control and regular government support for Poste Italiane as ‘medium’ (QS2) as a result of: i) a ‘medium’ government control over Poste Italiane’s strategic and operational decision-making; ii) a ‘high’ control over its key personnel, governing and oversight bodies; and iii) a ‘medium’ assessment of evidence of financial support.

Scope assesses the likelihood of exceptional support to be ‘high’ (QS2), reflecting: i) a ‘high’ assessment for strategic importance for the public sponsor; ii) ‘high’ substitution difficulty; and iii) ‘high’ assessment of the socio-economic, reputational and financial default implications in the event of a hypothetical default.

The assessments under QS1 and QS2 result in an indicative rating of ‘bbb+’ for Poste Italiane. The supplementary analysis of stand-alone business and financial risks has not led to any adjustment to the indicative rating, resulting in a final rating of BBB+.

The results were discussed and confirmed by a rating committee.

Environment, social and governance (ESG) factors

Scope considers the following ESG factors in the rating analysis.

Scope's BBB+ rating for the Republic of Italy, Poste Italiane’s public sponsor, includes an appraisal of ESG factors, which are weighted at 25% overall per Scope's ‘Sovereign Ratings’ methodology.

Governance factors are relevant to Poste Italiane's rating and are included in the assessment of integration with the Republic of Italy and in the assessment of Poste Italiane’s stand-alone profile. These factors are supported by a robust corporate governance structure, and a conservative approach to financial management.

Social factors are included in the assessment of Poste Italiane's strategic relevance. Scope assesses social aspects as relevant and positive for Poste Italiane’s ratings. Poste Italiane is the largest employer in Italy, with approximately 120,000 employees and plays a pivotal role in Italy’s socio-economic development. Its extensive service network combining digital and physical channels, enables the entity to engage extensively and effectively with local communities, guaranteeing their access to essential public and administrative services. During the pandemic, Poste Italiane played a crucial social role in Italy's Covid-19 vaccination campaign by providing citizens the means to book vaccinations through its platform, call center, or ATMs nationwide. Additionally, the Group's couriers were instrumental in transporting vaccines to various vaccination centers, underscoring its enhanced social function during this critical period. Recently, the “Polis” project, aimed at supporting the country’s social and economic cohesion, by transforming 7000 post offices into digital service hub for accessing public administration services in small municipalities, highlights once again the social importance of a player like Poste Italiane.

Scope also analyses Poste Italiane's environmental policies. The company’s Sustainability Strategy includes the ESG Strategic Plan, focused on eight pillars contributing to the achievement of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals. Poste Italiane has the objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 and fully decarbonize the investment portfolio by 2050. Therefore, it is implementing several initiatives including the renewal of the delivery fleet with low-emissions vehicles, the installation of photovoltaic panels, the enhancement of building efficiency, the development of product offering aimed at enhancing customers’ sustainable behaviour, and the inclusion of ESG factors into its investment process. In addition, the “Green Delivery” model also allows for greater efficiency in Poste Italiane’s logistics as more parcels can be delivered to a single collection point, thus limiting the number of pick-ups and fleet movements. During H1 2025, more than 70% of Poste Italiane’s investments in assets were classified as ESG, signaling a strong commitment to sustainable development. ESG considerations are also into its asset management and insurance activities, reflecting a comprehensive approach to sustainability across all its operations.

Rating committee
The main points discussed during the rating committee were: i) Poste Italiane’s integration with the Italian Republic, ii) the likelihood of exceptional support, iii) a supplementary analysis of Poste’s fundamentals; and iv) characteristics of the hybrid debt instrument.

Rating driver references
1.  Scope affirms Italy’s credit ratings at BBB+ and revises the Outlook to Positive, 31 October 2025
2.  Poste Italiane’s approach to sustainability
3.  Poste Italiane interim report at 30 June 2025

Methodology
The methodology used for these Credit Ratings and Outlooks, (Government Related Entity Rating Methodology, 3 September 2025), is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.

Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain and the Rated Entity.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and Outlooks and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and Outlooks are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings and Outlooks were not amended before being issued.

Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and Outlooks are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Carlo Capuano, Executive Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Alvise Lennkh-Yunus, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were first released by Scope Ratings on 1 December 2023. The Credit Ratings/Outlooks were last updated on 13 September 2024.

Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.

Conditions of use / exclusion of liability
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