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Scope upgrades AEI’s issuer rating to CC from C and assigns a Stable Outlook
The latest information on the rating, including rating reports and related methodologies, is available on this LINK.
Rating action
Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has today upgraded the issuer rating of closed-end investment company UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos (hereafter referred to as ‘AEI’) to CC from C, with a Stable Outlook. Scope has also upgraded the senior unsecured debt rating to CCC from CC. The upgrade resolves the under-review status for the ratings.
The upgrade reflects AEI’s successful restructuring of its bond maturing in December 2025 (ISIN LT0000405938, hereafter also referred as ‘EUR 2021/2025 bond’), which included a partial refinancing and an extension of the maturity at amended terms. Overall, AEI has reduced the volume that needs to be refinanced over the next few quarters and gained a few more months to implement a sustained refinancing concept. Nevertheless, AEI’s liquidity position remains weak and there is significant refinancing risk for the amended maturity date in June 2026 as the company will need to source funds from multiple initiatives that carry high execution risk.
The full list of rating actions and rated entities is at the end of this rating action release.
Key rating drivers
On 15 December 2025, AEI successfully executed the restructuring of its EUR 2021/2025 bond, leaving an outstanding nominal value of EUR 20.7m to be repaid in June 2026 with an increased coupon of 8.5%. Additionally, due to the issuance of new bond tranches and exchange tender offers placed during the second half of 2025, two bonds will require refinancing: one in December 2026 (ISIN LT0000135840, referred to hereafter as the 'EUR 2025/2026 bond'), and one in December 2027 (ISIN LT0000134439).
The upgrade reflects the positive impact of the successful restructuring of the EUR 2021/2025 bond, which has prevented an immediate default and did not constitute a Selective Default under Scope’s Credit Rating Definitions. The restructuring provided temporary liquidity relief. However, this remains a short-term measure, as the company continues to face significant liquidity pressures in 2026, which constrains the issuer rating at CC.
With EUR 20.7m outstanding under the EUR 2021/2025 bond and EUR 14.3m under the EUR 2025/2026 bond, AEI must secure funding to either fully repay or refinance the EUR 35m maturing in 2026. While the extended timeline offers some flexibility to pursue alternatives, Scope considers execution risk to remain high given the company’s recent track record on asset sales and new bond placements, leaving a significant risk of default if the company’s initiative proves unsuccessful or insufficient.
Business risk profile: B (unchanged). AEI’s business risk profile remains unchanged since Scope’s June 2025 Rating Action.
Financial risk profile: CC (revised from C). The slight improvement is driven by the recovery of the liquidity position, signalling the successful restructuring of the EUR 2021/2025 bond. Nevertheless, liquidity remains inadequate and AEI’s overall financial position is extremely weak.
Liquidity: inadequate (-3 notches, revised from -4 notches). Scope applies a negative 3-notch adjustment within the financial risk profile to reflect the high refinancing risk associated with the bonds maturing in 2026, driven by the AEI’s recent difficulties to raise sufficient funds for full refinancing of its notes.
Supplementary rating drivers: credit-neutral (unchanged). Supplementary rating drivers have no impact on the rating. However, Scope highlights inconsistencies in AEI’s published information regarding the EUR 2021/2025 bond and its refinancing plans. Additionally, Scope views negatively AEI’s strategy of resorting to last-minute refinancing attempts for the debts maturing in December 2025, rather than implementing more timely and transparent alternatives.
Outlook and rating sensitivities
The Stable Outlook reflects the potential rating development over the next few months during the company’s ongoing refinancing efforts, which may lead to a Default situation but could also result in a full and timely refinancing. While Scope acknowledges that AEI still has time to find alternative options to fund the outstanding amounts maturing in 2026, it sees the successful full refinancing still at risk due to the high execution risk.
The upside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:
- Successful execution of the refinancing measures, providing overall full coverage of debt maturities in 2026, without entering renewed discussions with creditors on a debt restructuring.
The downside scenario for the ratings and Outlook is:
- Failure to obtain necessary funding to refinance debt maturities in June 2026 or renewed restructuring needs for outstanding debt positions.
Debt rating
Scope has upgraded the senior unsecured debt rating to CCC from CC, following the upgrade of the underlying issuer rating. The debt rating remains one notch above the issuer rating reflecting Scope’s ‘excellent’ recovery expectation in a hypothetical default scenario in June 2026. This is underpinned by the company’s asset base and reported total asset value (EUR 181.4m as of end Sep 2025) which is considerably higher than the total debt exposure and which provides an above average recovery even in the case of heavy discounts on valuations in the case of a liquidation of the fund. Nevertheless, considering the execution risk of eventual asset disposals, the debt rating is limited to just one notch above the issuer rating.
In a liquidation scenario, project debt (bank loans) to the SPVs owned by portfolio companies and to which AEI has provided shareholder loans will be recovered first. Remaining proceeds from the disposal of operational and unfinished renewable energy power plants could be used to redeem the shareholder loans, which would support the recovery of senior unsecured debt at holding company level.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors
All of AEI’s investments are channelled into portfolio companies that operate renewable energy assets in Lithuania and Poland, markets which are chronically short of electricity generation capacities and have a significant annual electricity generation deficit (net importers). Such a portfolio exposure has attracted money flows with regards to green bond funding or the direct equity contributions that supported AEI’s growth and investment ambitions.
All rating actions and rated entities
UAB Atsinaujinančios Energetikos Investicijos
Issuer rating: CC/Stable, upgrade
Senior unsecured debt rating: CCC, upgrade
Stress testing & cash flow analysis
No stress testing was performed. Scope Ratings performed its standard cash flow forecasting for the company.
Methodology
The methodologies used for these Credit Ratings and/or Outlook, (Investment Holding Companies Rating Methodology, 16 May 2025; General Corporate Rating Methodology, 14 February 2025), are available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
Information on the meaning of each Credit Rating category, including definitions of default, recoveries, Outlooks and Under Review, can be viewed in ‘Rating Definitions – Credit Ratings, Ancillary and Other Services’, published on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Historical default rates of the entities rated by Scope Ratings can be viewed in the Credit Rating performance report at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/regulatory/eu-regulation. Also refer to the central platform (CEREP) of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA): registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication/. A comprehensive clarification of Scope Ratings’ definitions of default and Credit Rating notations can be found at scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/definitions-and-scales. Guidance and information on how environmental, social or governance factors (ESG factors) are incorporated into the Credit Rating can be found in the respective sections of the methodologies or guidance documents provided on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
The Outlook indicates the most likely direction of the Credit Ratings if the Credit Ratings were to change within the next 12 to 18 months.
Solicitation, key sources and quality of information
The Rated Entity and/or its Related Third Parties participated in the Credit Rating process.
The following substantially material sources of information were used to prepare the Credit Ratings: public domain, the Rated Entity and Scope Ratings' internal sources.
Scope Ratings considers the quality of information available to Scope Ratings on the Rated Entity or instrument to be satisfactory. The information and data supporting these Credit Ratings originate from sources Scope Ratings considers to be reliable and accurate. Scope Ratings does not, however, independently verify the reliability and accuracy of the information and data.
Prior to the issuance of the Credit Rating action, the Rated Entity was given the opportunity to review the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook and the principal grounds on which the Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are based. Following that review, the Credit Ratings were not amended before being issued.
Regulatory disclosures
These Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0. The Credit Ratings and/or Outlook are UK-endorsed.
Lead analyst: Miguel Pinto, Associate Director
Person responsible for approval of the Credit Ratings: Sebastian Zank, Managing Director
The Credit Ratings/Outlook were first released by Scope Ratings on 20 June 2022. The Credit Ratings were last updated on 21 November 2025.
Potential conflicts
See scoperatings.com under Governance & Policies/Regulatory for a list of potential conflicts of interest disclosures related to the issuance of Credit Ratings, as well as a list of Ancillary Services and certain non-Credit Rating Agency services provided to Rated Entities and/or Related Third Parties.
Conditions of use/exclusion of liability
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