MONDAY, 01/12/2025 - Scope Ratings GmbH

Italian NPL collections: downward trend not only persists but worsens

Collections for first 10 months of 2025 are consistent with the negative trend that started in 2023. The split between recovery strategies, meanwhile, has been constant. October collections were in line with September’s, recording a slight decrease of 2%.

Collections in 2025 to the end of October remain significantly below the historical average. In fact, the downward trend that began in the first half 2023 has worsened in recent months. One factor behind this is seasoning, which tends to exert a stronger impact as portfolios age, further reducing recoveries for the most seasoned deals.

All three recovery strategies have continued to underperform relative to the three-year October average. DPOs have been particularly affected, falling by 44% (-EUR 21m). Judicial proceeds declined by 27% (-EUR 28m), while note sales registered a marginal decrease of 2% (-EUR 2m).