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      Belgium: nationalist parties raise risk of political gridlock and deterioration of fiscal outlook

      14/6/2024 Research EN

      Belgium: nationalist parties raise risk of political gridlock and deterioration of fiscal outlook

      Strong momentum behind the Flemish nationalists and separatists in Belgium’s federal election aggravates political fragmentation and polarization. It complicates forming a new government and the consolidation of public finances, a key credit challenge.

      Europe’s shifting political landscape, limited fiscal space are challenges to closing investment gap

      12/6/2024 Research EN

      Europe’s shifting political landscape, limited fiscal space are challenges to closing investment gap

      To bolster European security, defence, and strategic independence while improving competitiveness, the EU needs deeper capital markets and extra EU-level funding for the necessary investments. Growing political fragmentation is complicating the task.

      Scope withdraws its UK Social Housing Providers Rating Methodology

      11/6/2024 Research EN

      Scope withdraws its UK Social Housing Providers Rating Methodology

      The methodology has been withdrawn for business reasons.

      France’s snap election raises uncertainty on fiscal consolidation and policy agenda

      10/6/2024 Research EN

      France’s snap election raises uncertainty on fiscal consolidation and policy agenda

      The outcome of France’s snap legislative election could further limit government’s ability to tackle its most urgent credit challenges, including consolidating public finances, if opposition parties strengthen their grip on the National Assembly.

      EU election: far-right shift to influence, not derail mainstream policy agenda

      4/6/2024 Research EN

      EU election: far-right shift to influence, not derail mainstream policy agenda

      The expected rise in support for far-right parties in the European Parliamentary elections and across member states will likely influence EU policy making but should not significantly alter Europe’s strategic priorities for tackling structural challenges.

      South African elections: greater governability challenges likely as ANC loses its majority

      3/6/2024 Research EN

      South African elections: greater governability challenges likely as ANC loses its majority

      South Africa faces a period of greater political fragmentation and reduced governability, adding pressure in the face of rising economic, social and especially fiscal challenges that need to be addressed by the next government.

      Rising debt, gradual de-dollarisation are growing risks for US sovereign rating

      31/5/2024 Research EN

      Rising debt, gradual de-dollarisation are growing risks for US sovereign rating

      The challenges of dealing with structurally rising debt and gradual de-dollarisation, which might both accelerate after this year’s presidential election, constitute growing pressure points for the sovereign credit rating of the United States.

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      With better-than-expected operating conditions, 2024 looks favourable for Italian banks. However, latent risks persist, as evidenced by developments around eco tax credits.

      United Kingdom: rising debt a key long-term rating risk

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      United Kingdom: rising debt a key long-term rating risk

      The UK likely faces rising public-debt levels after forthcoming general elections, given a lack of priority to change policy. Even though the UK benefits from among the world’s most-significant debt tolerance, rising debt poses a long-term rating risk.

      Italy: tax breaks, investment delays, rising debt-to-GDP increase the need for fiscal consolidation

      17/5/2024 Research EN

      Italy: tax breaks, investment delays, rising debt-to-GDP increase the need for fiscal consolidation

      Italy’s government needs to devise and implement a credible, medium-term fiscal consolidation plan to stabilise public debt given the challenges of high interest costs, excessive past tax incentives, and delays in growth-enhancing recovery plan spending.