14/2/2024 Research EN
Structured Finance Activity Report: negative rating drift continues reversal
Scope’s 12-month trailing negative rating drift in structured finance continued to subside in Q4 2023, moving further off the trough reached in Q2 2023. The downtrend started in Q4 2021 owing to the deteriorating economic environment.
13/2/2024 Research EN
Italian NPL collections: lower extrajudicial proceeds drag 2023 volumes down
December Italian NPL collections rose by 87% month-on-month to EUR226m. But they were still 12% below the average of December 2021 and 2022. Collections for the whole of 2023 fell by 21% against the previous two-year average.
25/1/2024 Research EN
Italian NPL securitisation: negative ratings drift likely to abate but outlook subdued
Expectations for a soft landing and a normalisation of economic and monetary conditions are likely to cause negative ratings drift to abate even while servicer performance continues to undershoot expectations. Our outlook remains skewed to the downside.
23/1/2024 Research EN
Systemic risk remains high in European housing market
Housing affordability is stretched and systemic risk a concern. Policy measures to improve financial system resilience can help. Germany might introduce borrower-based measures but they will need to be carefully calibrated to avoid further curbing supply.
23/1/2024 Research EN
Italian NPL collections: 11-month 2023 volumes 23% below previous two years; fewer note sales
November Italian NPL collections were stable month-on-month but 22% below the two previous years. For the first 11 months of the year, the negative trend for 2023 continued: proceeds were 23% lower than the average of the previous two years.
22/1/2024 Research EN
Covered Bond Outlook: Back to a credit-driven buyer’s market
Active covered-bond supply so far this year is testament to a functioning market, but the end of ECB asset purchases has shown that the waters can become choppy: issuers and arrangers have to take care around timing and investor appetite.