European households will see housing affordability deteriorate as the supply-demand gap persists and prices continue to rise. Stimulus measures are urgently needed to boost housing supply in European countries where the situation is particularly acute.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.

The sharp correction in European banks’ share prices following the announcement of US tariffs on EU imports reflects mounting investor concerns about the potential implications for asset quality and profitability in a traditionally high-beta sector.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions moved into positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since 2022.

French banks’ profits will grow moderately in 2025, supported by net interest income and commissions, notably in corporate and investment banking. But improvements in profitability could be slowed by the subdued performance of the domestic economy.

Italian NPL collections fell 11% month on month in February, a noticeable deviation from past years, where February collections have typically been aligned with or slightly above January’s.

We expect a modest deterioration in EU banks’ asset quality, mainly driven by rising pressures in the EU corporate sector. But a worsening of the global operating environment could accelerate this deterioration, increasing credit risks for the banks.

Monday, April 7th 2025 - 1:00 PM (CEST)

The introduction of Dutch-specific assumptions strengthens transparency and standardisation in the RMBS rating methodology.

While Spanish banks achieved record profitability in 2024, Q4 results suggest that net interest margins and customer spreads have peaked. Increasing fees and commissions will be key to profitability, given lower rates and competitive pressure on lending.