European CMBS issuance accelerated in 2025 to EUR 8.7bn, almost 75% higher than the previous three years combined. We expect the momentum to continue, driven by the growing role of private credit in CRE financing and sustained demand for securitisation.

Our 2026 base case for credit is defined by a resilient economy and tight labour markets. Transaction performance will be supported by an easing in lending and refinancing conditions and robust securitisation structures will support rating stability.

Scope Ratings publishes its updated rating methodology for CRE securities and CMBS. All changes incorporated are non-material and affect no outstanding ratings. The proposed updates clarify and enhance the analytical approach.

We have a balanced base case for European banks going into 2026. Profitability is resilient, asset quality and capital buffers are solid. We have upgraded our profitability forecasts for 2026 and 2027. But several risk factors could test the outlook.

Thursday 11 December 2025 - 15:00 (CET)

The cut in minimum Long-Term Funding Ratio (WFD) requirements from 40% to 20% recommended by Poland’s Financial Supervision Authority and the inclusion of capped retail deposits come alongside bold measures to strengthen the covered bond market.

Collections for first 10 months of 2025 are consistent with the negative trend that started in 2023. The split between recovery strategies, meanwhile, has been constant. October collections were in line with September’s, recording a slight decrease of 2%.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions continued its shift into positive territory in the third quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since early 2022.

Profitability is set to remain strong in 2026. Moderate loan growth, steady fee expansion and stable costs will support profits. But we are projecting an increase in provisions as default rates normalise, while economic and other risks remain high.

ABN AMRO’s announced acquisition of NIBC Bank carries low execution risk and is marginally supportive of the group’s strategic development and long-term credit profile.