Scope completes monitoring review for Kingdom of Denmark
Monitoring review announcement
Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the case of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations.
Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macroeconomic or financial market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.
Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit ratings’ performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope publicly announces the completion of each monitoring review on its website.
Scope completed the monitoring review for the Kingdom of Denmark (AAA/Stable; S-1+/Stable) on 3 May 2022.
This monitoring note does not constitute a credit rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated rating history can be found on www.scoperatings.com.
Key rating factors
The Kingdom of Denmark’s long-term AAA/Stable ratings are underpinned by the following credit strengths: i) the country’s wealthy and competitive economy; ii) sound public finances and a low level of public debt; iii) a solid external position driven by consistent current-account surpluses; and iv) a strong institutional framework and stable governance. These factors increase the country’s resilience to economic shocks, including from the Covid-19 pandemic and rising inflationary pressures following the Russia-Ukraine war, and they provide the government with fiscal space to support the economy with countercyclical fiscal measures.
Challenges relate to: i) vulnerabilities in the Danish financial system, including from high levels of household debt; and ii) banking sector vulnerabilities related to high and rising property prices. Rising interest rates are likely to dampen house price growth in Denmark. A sharp correction in the housing market could weigh on consumption and result in spill-over effects in Denmark’s highly interconnected financial system of mortgage credit institutions, pension funds and insurance companies.
The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are balanced over the next 12 to 18 months.
The rating/Outlook could be downgraded if, individually or collectively: i) a severe economic shock resulted in a material decline in medium-term growth prospects; ii) the fiscal outlook deteriorated, resulting in a significant upward trend in government debt-to-GDP ratios; and/or iii) banking system risks increased and resulted in broader systemic risk, leading to the materialisation of contingent liabilities on the government’s balance sheet.
For the updated report accompanying this review, click here.
The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Ratings Methodology, 8 October 2021) is available on https://scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Eiko Sievert, Director
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