Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

The robust solvency of European banks and their capacity to absorb credit losses from ordinary profitability provide important buffers against credit deterioration at a time when US trade policy is impacting Europe’s growth and interest-rate outlook.

European households will see housing affordability deteriorate as the supply-demand gap persists and prices continue to rise. Stimulus measures are urgently needed to boost housing supply in European countries where the situation is particularly acute.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Retail and Wholesale Rating Methodology by 26 May 2025. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach. The methodology might have a limited negative impact on two issuers ratings.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.

Five years after the pandemic and the collapse of the output agreement between OPEC and Russia sent oil prices into free fall, oil markets face another shock, this time from changes in US trade policy and in the OPEC+ group’s production limits.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Chemicals Rating Methodology by 14 May 2025. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies the analytical approach. The methodology as proposed might have a positive impact of one notch for one rated entity.

The protectionist tilt of US trade policy has unsettled investors, partly by clouding the outlook for global growth. But for European companies with US exposure, the impact of higher tariffs on cashflow and credit quality are mixed and case specific.

The sharp correction in European banks’ share prices following the announcement of US tariffs on EU imports reflects mounting investor concerns about the potential implications for asset quality and profitability in a traditionally high-beta sector.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions moved into positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since 2022.