Elevated geopolitical tensions, deeper political polarisation and persistent fiscal challenges outweigh the potential for stronger growth and instances of fiscal resilience, driving our overall negative sovereign credit outlook.

France’s intrinsic resilience underpins our four-notch rating differential with Italy, as similar funding conditions contrast with different budgetary dynamics and governance challenges, although rating convergence is now more likely in the years ahead.

Tuesday, November 25th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CET)

Scope seeks market participants’ feedback on analytical developments

Webinar: Wednesday, November 5th 2025 - 3:00 PM (CET)

The claim that Europe’s gradual economic and geopolitical decline is irreversible is overstated. But it will require a strategic political shift to change the current trajectory.

The recent collapse of First Brands, in casting a shadow over the direct-lending sector in the US, raises important questions: does the rapid growth in private credit amplify corporate credit risk and will this be different in Europe compared with the US?

Climate change can materially affect the creditworthiness of all issuer types and asset classes, so we have harmonised our general framework for capturing this risk, which can be applied to produce issuer-specific Key Climate Risk Indicators (KCRIs).

With only slowly recovering economic growth and structurally high interest costs, Hungary needs sustained fiscal discipline to ensure budget deficits narrow gradually and debt-to-GDP stabilises before and after parliamentary elections due next spring.

The European Commission (EC) has prepared an innovative if complex plan to mobilise seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine. This initiative is critical given the absence of any credible alternative for providing sustained financial support.