Without substantive corrective fiscal measures, the US public debt ratio will reach 133% of GDP by 2030, exceeding our forecasts for France (122%) and the UK (111%), while interest payments will average 12% of revenues, at least twice that of peers.

Nicușor Dan’s victory in Romania’s presidential election eases political tensions and supports EU alignment but addressing the widening fiscal deficit, the weak absorption of EU funds and a backlog of reforms remain stark challenges for the authorities.

Italian NPL collections in March rose 45% month on month, consistent with previous years. But while monthly volumes bounced back from a poor February, they were still 43% below the three-year March average.

The Spanish economy’s growth continues to outpace the euro area’s due to improving labour markets, strong tourism receipts and ample EU funds. Still, further fiscal consolidation and reforms are needed to improve Spain’s resilience to potential shocks.

Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

European households will see housing affordability deteriorate as the supply-demand gap persists and prices continue to rise. Stimulus measures are urgently needed to boost housing supply in European countries where the situation is particularly acute.

Political uncertainty in Romania is complicating fiscal consolidation, raising borrowing costs and delaying reforms linked to EU funding while shifts in United States trade and security policy add further challenges to the fiscal and growth outlooks.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.

Italy’s economy is set to grow more slowly in 2025-26 given US tariffs and delays in recovery-plan investments. Still, reforms and continuing EU-fund deployment should support medium-term growth after 2026.

Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – "tariff-light", trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including the introduction of US capital controls – says Scope Ratings.