Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Akershus County Municipality (long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in local and foreign currency: AAA/Stable; short-term issuer ratings in local and foreign currency: S-1+/Stable) on 25 June 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

The County of Akershus’ AAA ratings are underpinned by the following credit strengths: i) a well-integrated institutional framework for Norwegian counties. Scope's evaluation of the institutional arrangements establishes an indicative rating range for Norwegian counties spanning from AAA to AA. This robust framework underpins their financial and operational resilience, effective governance, and proactive central government support; and ii) a strong individual credit profile characterised by prudent fiscal management and resilient budget performance, supported by a robust revenue structure and ample reserves in the form of multiple funds. The county also benefits from ample liquidity which supports its debt profile. Akershus’ credit profile is further strengthened by a dynamic economy, driven by strong population growth, low transition risks, and ambitious environmental policies.

In 2024, Akershus recorded a moderate operating margin-to-operating revenue of 3.7%, constrained by a NOK 254m tax revenue shortfall compared to the revised budget, driven by weaker-than-expected growth in withholding and advance tax payments, along with lower-than-budgeted settlements from the previous year. This revenue gap was partially offset by NOK 176m in additional compensation from the income equalisation system. Further support came from higher dividends from Akershus Energi AS, which rose to NOK 245m from NOK 200m in 2023. Akershus’ budgetary flexibility is reinforced by a reserve fund amounting to 5.7% of operating revenue, above the 5% target set in its 2024-27 financial plan. Total discretionary funds exceeded 17% of operating revenue, significantly above the national average of 12.8%, providing a robust buffer against revenue volatility.

The county’s long-term debt (excl. pension obligations)-to-gross operating revenue was at 41% at end-2024, below the 50% budgeted and the 77% national average for counties. This was mostly driven by significant shift and rebudgeting of investments from 2024 to 2025 and in subsequent years. Interest expenditure was low, at 1.8% of operating revenue, while the liquidity position was strong at NOK 2.1bn on average, sufficiently covering annual debt service and accounting for around 47% of financial debt.

Challenges relate to i) pressures on operating expenditure due to several factors, including high personnel costs, increasing service expenditures — particularly in the education and public transportation sectors — and the growth of the population in the county; and ii) limited flexibility in revenue and expenditure: Akershus' revenue flexibility is constrained by its substantial reliance on government transfers, which account for approximately 40% of the county's operating revenue. Expenditures are similarly constrained with a 40% share allocated to personnel costs and a substantial portion dedicated to social welfare, particularly education. However, the presence of dividend income and unrestricted reserve funds helps to mitigate the rigidity in the budget structure.

The Stable Outlook represents Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are balanced over the coming 12 to 18 months.

The ratings could be downgraded if: i) Norway’s sovereign rating was downgraded; ii) reforms to the institutional framework materially weaken the counties’ integration in institutional arrangements; and/or iii) Akershus’ individual credit profile deteriorated significantly and structurally.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sub-Sovereigns Ratings Methodology, 11 October 2024) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Alessandra Poli, Analyst

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