Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology/ies, including key rating assumptions and model(s). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Serbia (long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: BB+/Stable; short-term local- and foreign-currency issuer ratings: S-3/Stable) on 18 November 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

For the updated rating report accompanying this review, please see here.

Serbia’s BB+ ratings with a Stable Outlook are supported by: i) a well-established macroeconomic and monetary-policy framework, reflecting a solid track record of sustained and balanced GDP growth, driven by investment and exports; and ii) moderate public-debt levels, supported by effective budget management alongside steady inflows of concessional financing and foreign direct investment (FDI), that reinforce external stability and fiscal resilience.

Serbia’s growth outlook has softened recently but remains resilient: after a solid GDP growth of 3.9% in 2024, Scope expects economic activity to expand by around 2.1% in 2025, supported by consumption and investment, despite global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty. Scope projects growth to strengthen toward 3% in 2026, supported by rising real incomes, new manufacturing capacity coming onstream and preparatory investment for Expo 2027.

External imbalances remain a structural challenge, with the current account deficit still above 5% of GDP and the NIIP negative at around -60%, despite gradual improvement from sustained FDI inflows. FX reserves are ample, though coverage has moderated, while Serbia’s high foreign-currency share of public debt leaves the economy sensitive to shifts in external financing conditions.

Serbia is committed to keeping fiscal deficits under control (below 3% of GDP), despite large investment needs linked to EXPO 2027. Public debt remains moderate at around 45% of GDP in 2025, and Scope projects it to stay broadly stable through 2030, supported by IMF-backed reforms and solid nominal growth.

Serbia’s EU accession process has stalled, with only 22 of 35 chapters opened and limited progress due to tensions with Kosovo, slow reforms in rule of law and media freedom; normalisation with Kosovo remains an obstacle. While Serbia continues to receive EU financial support, future assistance will depend on concrete progress in governance, rule of law, and Kosovo-related commitments. In addition, the potential full enforcement of U.S. sanctions on NIS pressures Serbia’s alignment with EU energy-security objectives and poses a risk to external stability, higher inflation, a weaker current account and greater contingent fiscal burdens.

Rating challenges include: i) institutional weaknesses and slow progress on structural reforms, including gaps in governance, and rule of law compared with its peers, which continue to weigh on policy predictability; ii) heightened uncertainty over Serbia’s access to, and cost of, energy security due to U.S. sanctions on Gazprom Neft and its subsidiaries, including NIS; and iii) elevated external vulnerabilities, reflected in a still-high external debt burden, a significant foreign-currency share in public and private debt, and a current account deficit that remains dependent on sustained FDI inflows, leaving the economy exposed to shifts in external financing conditions.

The Stable Outlook represents Scope’s view that risks to the ratings over the next 12 to 18 months are balanced.

The upside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Governance and/or political risks were eased, including through material progress toward EU accession
    
2. External position further strengthened, due to robust exports or increased net FDI inflows; and/or
    
3. Debt/GDP ratio set on a firm downward trajectory over the medium run.

The downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are if (individually or collectively):

1. Governance and/or political risks increased, affecting the quality and predictability of policymaking
    
2. Increase in external vulnerabilities, weighing on reserve adequacy; and/or
    
3. Steady increase in debt/GDP ratio in the medium run.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Sovereign Rating Methodology, 27 January 2025) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Jakob Suwalski, Executive Director

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