The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sovereign credit outlook is balanced, a rebound in growth broadly offsetting structural pressures amid fiscal and geopolitical challenges. Of 15 rated CEE sovereigns, three have Positive and 12 have Stable Outlooks.

French banks have underperformed EU peers on profitability in 2024, mainly due to slower balance-sheet repricing. We expect revenue growth in 2025, but political uncertainty will weigh on market confidence and could delay the recovery in lending volumes.

Scope’s ABS mandates continue to grow with Asti Group RMBS IV, a securitisation of prime Italian residential mortgages arranged by UniCredit. The mandate follows the ECB’s inclusion of Scope’s ABS ratings in its credit assessment framework (ECAF).

Italian NPL collections rose by 11% month-on-month in October but were significantly below the volumes recorded in the same month of the past two years.

Lithuania is set to outperform Estonia and Latvia fiscally and economically in the short to medium term, driven by structural, cyclical and policy-related factors reflected in latest rating actions on the three Baltic states.

Savings bank consolidation has accelerated in 2024. With integration risks and capital impacts well controlled, this is positive from a credit risk perspective given economies of scale, stronger market positions, and business and regional diversification.

The collapse of the French government will delay near-term fiscal consolidation and far-reaching reforms. France’s institutional safeguards should prevent a budget stalemate, but prolonged political gridlock could be credit negative.

Normalising global economic fundamentals partially offset rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty in 2025, ensuring a balanced overall sovereign credit outlook, says Scope Ratings.

Consumer, corporate and SME ABS and RMBS have experienced positive ratings drift since the pandemic, a period characterised by extremely low levels of borrower insolvencies, mainly due to powerful policy measures in support of households and businesses.

Scope Ratings has published the performance overview of notes issued by Marzio Finance, a EUR 10bn securitisation programme backed by ‘cessione del quinto’ and ‘delegazione di pagamento’ (CQS) loans originated by IBL Banca.