Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) monitors and reviews its credit ratings on an ongoing basis and at least annually, or every six months in the cases of sovereigns, sub-sovereigns and supranational organisations that may act as a lender of last resort.

Scope performs monitoring reviews to determine whether material changes and/or changes in macro-economic or financial-market conditions could have an impact on the credit ratings. Scope considers all available and relevant information when undertaking the monitoring review.

Monitoring reviews are conducted by performing a peer comparison, benchmarking against the rating-change drivers, and/or reviewing the credit rating’s performance over time, as deemed appropriate by the Lead Analyst or Analytical Team Head, in addition to an assessment of all aspects of the relevant methodology, including key rating assumptions and model). Scope announces the result of each monitoring review on its website and/or on its subscription platform ScopeOne.

Scope completed the monitoring review for Cassa Depositi e Prestiti SpA (issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings: BBB+/Stable, short-term debt rating: S-2/Stable) on 10 July 2025.

This monitoring note does not constitute a credit-rating action, nor does it indicate the likelihood that Scope will conduct a credit-rating action in the short term. Information about the latest credit-rating action connected with this monitoring note along with the associated ratings history can be found on scoperatings.com.

Key rating factors

Cassa Depositi e Prestiti SpA (CDP)’s issuer rating of BBB+ reflects the following rating drivers:

• Strong level of integration with the public sponsor: CDP maintains a high level of integration with the Italian Republic (BBB+/Stable), underpinned by (i) the group’s status as Italy’s National Promotional Institution, with a mission to foster the country’s economic development primarily by channelling postal savings towards public infrastructure, Italian government and public administration financing; (ii) majority public ownership (82.8% of share capital) and; (iii) significant financial interdependencies with the State.
   
• High likelihood of exceptional support from the public sponsor: Scope applies a “top-down” approach in assessing the creditworthiness of CDP, which takes the public sponsor’s rating (Italy: BBB+/Stable) as the starting point. Scope regards the likelihood of exceptional support to be high despite the absence of an explicit guarantee on all of CDP’s liabilities. This view is based on CDP’s strategic importance to the Italian state, the lack of credible alternatives, and the severe implications a default would have for the Italian economy and public finances.
   
• Sound stand-alone financial fundamentals: These are underpinned by (i) strong earnings, due to privileged access to stable postal savings, low credit costs and dividends from equity stakes; (ii) sound asset quality, reflecting the material exposure to Italian public entities; and (iii) a stable funding and liquidity profile.

Although CDP does not pursue a profit-maximising strategy, it has achieved solid earnings in recent years (return on equity at around 10%), partly thanks to the stream of dividend income from its equity portfolio. In a higher interest rate environment, profits have increased due to wider commercial spreads. Moreover, CDP’s asset quality is very strong with its net non-performing loans ratio stable and minimal at below 0.1%. Finally, Scope notes positively that CDP’s main source of funding consists of postal savings in the form of passbooks or bonds. As of end-2024, they amounted to EUR 290bn, or 81% of CDP’s total funding. These liabilities are guaranteed explicitly by the Italian state, issued by CDP, and distributed via Poste Italiane’s network.

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s view that risks to the ratings are balanced.

Upside scenario for the ratings and Outlooks is:

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks are upgraded.

Downside scenarios for the ratings and Outlooks are (individually or collectively):

1. The Republic of Italy’s ratings and/or Outlooks are downgraded.
    
2. A material change in the level of integration with the Italian Republic and/or credit support from the guarantee on postal savings.

The methodology applicable for the reviewed ratings and/or rating Outlooks (Government Related Entities Rating Methodology, 10 December 2024) is available on scoperatings.com/governance-and-policies/rating-governance/methodologies.
This monitoring note is issued by Scope Ratings GmbH, Lennéstraße 5, D-10785 Berlin, Tel +49 30 27891-0.
Lead analyst: Alessandro Boratti, Associate Director

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