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      Belgium: nationalist parties raise risk of political gridlock and deterioration of fiscal outlook

      14/6/2024 Research EN

      Belgium: nationalist parties raise risk of political gridlock and deterioration of fiscal outlook

      Strong momentum behind the Flemish nationalists and separatists in Belgium’s federal election aggravates political fragmentation and polarization. It complicates forming a new government and the consolidation of public finances, a key credit challenge.

      Europe’s shifting political landscape, limited fiscal space are challenges to closing investment gap

      12/6/2024 Research EN

      Europe’s shifting political landscape, limited fiscal space are challenges to closing investment gap

      To bolster European security, defence, and strategic independence while improving competitiveness, the EU needs deeper capital markets and extra EU-level funding for the necessary investments. Growing political fragmentation is complicating the task.

      Scope withdraws its UK Social Housing Providers Rating Methodology

      11/6/2024 Research EN

      Scope withdraws its UK Social Housing Providers Rating Methodology

      The methodology has been withdrawn for business reasons.

      France’s snap election raises uncertainty on fiscal consolidation and policy agenda

      10/6/2024 Research EN

      France’s snap election raises uncertainty on fiscal consolidation and policy agenda

      The outcome of France’s snap legislative election could further limit government’s ability to tackle its most urgent credit challenges, including consolidating public finances, if opposition parties strengthen their grip on the National Assembly.

      EU election: far-right shift to influence, not derail mainstream policy agenda

      4/6/2024 Research EN

      EU election: far-right shift to influence, not derail mainstream policy agenda

      The expected rise in support for far-right parties in the European Parliamentary elections and across member states will likely influence EU policy making but should not significantly alter Europe’s strategic priorities for tackling structural challenges.

      South African elections: greater governability challenges likely as ANC loses its majority

      3/6/2024 Research EN

      South African elections: greater governability challenges likely as ANC loses its majority

      South Africa faces a period of greater political fragmentation and reduced governability, adding pressure in the face of rising economic, social and especially fiscal challenges that need to be addressed by the next government.

      Case for cross-border consolidation remains weak; but domestic deals in Europe have potential

      3/6/2024 Research EN

      Case for cross-border consolidation remains weak; but domestic deals in Europe have potential

      This year has seen a rise in large bank M&A, reigniting speculation that a wave of consolidation may be imminent. The case for large cross-border mergers remains weak but there is potential for domestic activity in Italy, Spain, Germany and the UK.

      Scope Ratings publishes new RMBS rating methodology and calls for comments

      31/5/2024 Research EN

      Scope Ratings publishes new RMBS rating methodology and calls for comments

      The new structured finance methodology is specific to residential mortgage-backed securities, mainly in Europe. Scope is calling for comments until the 1st of July 2024.

      Rising debt, gradual de-dollarisation are growing risks for US sovereign rating

      31/5/2024 Research EN

      Rising debt, gradual de-dollarisation are growing risks for US sovereign rating

      The challenges of dealing with structurally rising debt and gradual de-dollarisation, which might both accelerate after this year’s presidential election, constitute growing pressure points for the sovereign credit rating of the United States.

      Spanish banks quarterly: profitability better than expected; competitive dynamics shifting

      30/5/2024 Research EN

      Spanish banks quarterly: profitability better than expected; competitive dynamics shifting

      Spanish banks saw record net interest income in Q1 while the cost of deposits likely reached its peak. BBVA’s bid for Sabadell could herald a period of consolidation in a dynamic economy offering growth opportunities that could benefit pricing power.